A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate Safety of MEDI-559 in Healthy 1 to <24 Month-Old Children

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationpatientmoderatecohortdefined
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinehealthyrespiratoryimmunogenicityday
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 0.08 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 72 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Immunogenicity and Vaccine-like Viral Shedding of MEDI-534, Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and Parainfluenza Virus Type 3 (PIV3), in Healthy 6 to <24 Month-old Children and in 2 Month-old Infants NCT00686075 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of MEDI8897 for the Prevention of Medically Attended Lower Respiratory Tract Infection Due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Healthy Late Preterm and Term Infants (MELODY) NCT03979313 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of MEDI8897 for the Prevention of Medically Attended RSV LRTI in Healthy Preterm Infants. NCT02878330 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Infectivity, Safety and Immunogenicity of a Recombinant Live-Attenuated Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine, LID/ΔM2-2/1030s, in RSV-Seronegative Infants and Children 6 to 24 Months of Age NCT04520659 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• MEDI-557 Adult Dosing NCT01562938 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.