Double-blind Comparative Study of E3810 Tablets (10 or 20 mg b.i.d.) to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety in Patients With Refractory Reflux Esophagitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidney diseasethe purposepurpose ofstudy isdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoefficacy andand safetypatients withcriteria patients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Double-blind Comparative Study of the Efficacy and Safety of E3810 10mg Once and Twice Daily in Maintenance Therapy for PPI Resistant Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease Patients NCT02135107 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-Blind, Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Acid-inhibitory and Dose-response Efficacy of TAK-438 (20 mg, 40 mg) in Patients With Proton Pump Inhibitor (PPI) - Resistant Erosive Esophagitis NCT01630746 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Compare D961H 20 mg Bid and 20 mg qd in Patients With Refractory Reflux Esophagitis (Inflammation of Lower Esophagus) NCT01669811 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Trial of IW-3718 for 8 Weeks in Patients With Persistent Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) Receiving Proton Pump Inhibitors (PPIs) NCT03561883 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Trial of IW-3718 for 8 Weeks in Patients With Persistent Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) Receiving Proton Pump Inhibitors (PPIs) NCT03561090 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.