Evaluation of the Safety and Immunogenicity of the Influenza Vaccine GSK2186877A in the Elderly
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2009-12-15, after 2008-10-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-12-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: the subjectsubject ispreviouslypriorfree
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationinfluenzaadministrationvaccines -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 530 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 826 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 826 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 530 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of Safety and Immunogenicity of GSK Biologicals' Influenza Vaccine GSK2186877A in Adults 65 Years and Older NCT00760617 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study of the Immunogenicity of GSK Biologicals' Influenza Vaccine GSK2186877A in People Aged 65 Years or Older NCT00765076 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals' Influenza Vaccine in Elderly People NCT00992784 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of an Investigational Influenza Vaccine for the Elderly NCT00938392 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of GSK Biologicals' Influenza Vaccine GSK2186877A in Adults 65 Year of Age and Older NCT00753272 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.