TRF-1101 Assessment in Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpatientplacebo controlledinjurysickle
  Phrases that lowered it: have historyconsent formcountclinicalalt
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Pociredir NCT05169580 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Study of IMR-687 in Subjects With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04474314 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Different Dose Regimens of Aes-103 Given for 28 Days to Subjects With Stable Sickle Cell Disease NCT01987908 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Efficacy of Crovalimab for the Management of Acute Uncomplicated Vaso-Occlusive Episodes (VOE) in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease (SCD). NCT04912869 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Single-dose Pharmacokinetics of Pociredir in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT07431398 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.