AZD6765 Severe Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) IV

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patient hasdeterminedepressionpatient isdoses
  Phrases that lowered it: effectinvestigateweeksand safetyefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 493 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 283 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Effect and Safety of AZD6765 in Patients With Major Depressive Disorder NCT01482221 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• AZD7268 Safety and Tolerability Study NCT01020799 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• 6-week Study Treatment to Evaluate the Safety and Effectiveness of AZD2066 in Patients With Major Depressive Disorder NCT01145755 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• This is a Study to Determine the Antidepressant Effects of AZD6765 NCT00986479 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of JNJ-42847922 as Adjunctive Therapy to Antidepressants in Adult Participants With Major Depressive Disorder Who Have Responded Inadequately to Antidepressant Therapy NCT03227224 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.