RDEA119 and Sorafenib Combination Dose Escalation Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: canceror equalequal tobowelchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyaminotransferasepatients whoulnaccording
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 98 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 226 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Escalation Study of ARQ 197 in Combination With Sorafenib in Adult Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT00827177 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib and TRC105 in Hepatocellular Cancer NCT01306058 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib Tosylate and Hypoxia-Activated Prodrug TH-302 in Treating Patients With Advanced Kidney Cancer or Liver Cancer That Cannot Be Removed By Surgery NCT01497444 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Trial of ARQ 197 in Patients With Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) Who Have Failed One Prior Systemic Therapy NCT00988741 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Plus Bevacizumab in Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) as Second-line Therapy NCT01180959 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.