Imaging Antidepressant vs. Cognitive Behavior Therapy Effects on Unipolar Depression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (145 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainagesmrichronictime of
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantindividualsinformationhiv
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 37793 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Elucidating the Neurocircuitry of Irritability With High-Field Neuroimaging to Identify Novel Therapeutic Targets NCT05046184 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Treatment Resistant Geriatric Depression in Primary Care NCT01392287 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Antidepressant Effects of the Glycine Receptor Antagonist AV-101 (4-chlorokynurenine) in Major Depressive Disorder NCT02484456 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Sequential Parallel Study of CERC-301 in the Adjunctive Treatment of Subjects With Severe Depression and Recent Active Suicidal Ideation Despite Antidepressant Treatment NCT01941043 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Antidepressant Effects of TS-161 in Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT04821271 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.