Analysis of Response of Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis or Psoriasis to Oral Vitamin D3
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2009-12-31, after 2008-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 94 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: kidneysubjects withpresence ofdiagnosismelanoma
Phrases that lowered it: psoriasistopicalparticipantdermatitisatopic -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 719 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 719 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 94 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 22221 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4390 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, and Safety Study of Ruxolitinib Cream in Adults With Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT06238817 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Study of ATI-1777 in Adult Patients With Moderate or Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT04598269 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of 611 in Chinese Adults With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05544591 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Thykamine Safety and Efficacy Study in Mild-to-Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT03540043 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Multiple Ascending Dose Study of the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Subcutaneously Delivered ASLAN004 in Adults With Moderate-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT04090229 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.