Lenalidomide and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Patients With Previously Treated Multiple Myeloma and Kidney Dysfunction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerradiationcellsstagemg dl
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultipledexamethasonedaysantiretroviral
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Allocation: non randomized (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 6 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lenalidomide & High Dose Dexamethasone for Untreated Multiple Myeloma Renal Failure Patients NCT01270932 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Low-Dose Azacitidine, Lenalidomide, and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01155583 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide Maintenance Therapy for Multiple Myeloma NCT01675141 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Bendamustine in Combination With Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Refractory or Relapsed Multiple Myeloma NCT01042704 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Study of Single Agent Lenalidomide in Older Adults With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT01054144 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.