Efficacy Confirmation Trial of CDP870 as add-on Medication to Methotrexate (MTX) in Japanese Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-01-31, after 2008-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebosubjectsmonths priormultiple sclerosisdose
Phrases that lowered it: patients whoramtxarthritisreceived -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: 74 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 74 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 12 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 18 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- certolizumab pegol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy Confirmation Trial of CDP870 Without Coadministration of Methotrexate (MTX) in Japanese Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT00791921 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Olokizumab With Rheumatoid Arthritis With Previously Failed to Anti-tumor Necrosis Factor (Anti-TNF) Therapy NCT01463059 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of CDP6038 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis With an Unsuccessful Response to Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor (Anti-TNF) Therapy NCT01242488 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Long-term Treatment Study of Certolizumab Pegol (CDP870) as Add-on Medication to Methotrexate in Japanese Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Patients NCT00851318 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Confirmation Study of CDP870 in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01451203 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.