Safety and Tolerability of Repeated Subcutaneous Injections of CAD 106 in Mild Alzheimer's Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimertolerabilitydiseaseseizuresplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofdiseasesatopicvaccineinvestigate the
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Tolerability of Repeated Subcutaneous Injections of CAD106 in Mild Alzheimer's Patients. NCT00733863 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• To Investigate the Safety and Tolerability of Repeated Subcutaneous Injections of CAD106 in Alzheimer's Patients NCT01023685 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• To Investigate the Safety and Tolerability of Repeated Subcutaneous Injections of CAD106 in Alzheimer's Patients NCT00956410 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Abeta-specific Antibody Response of Repeated i.m. Injections of Adjuvanted CAD106 in Mild Alzheimer Patients NCT01097096 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Tolerability and Safety of Subcutaneous Administration of AFFITOPE AD02 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00633841 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.