A Phase 2, Dose-finding, Cross-over Study to Evaluate the Effect of a NES/E2 Transdermal Gel Delivery on Ovulation Suppression in Normal Ovulating Women

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomapsoriasischronicbiopsyare excluded
  Phrases that lowered it: hgevaluate theto evaluateknown orbleeding
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of Norgestrel 75 mcg on Cervical Mucus and Ovarian Activity During Perfect Use, After One Delayed Intake and After a Missed Pill NCT03585712 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of a Contraceptive Vaginal Ring LSP- 5415 on Ovarian Function in Healthy Adult Females NCT05360550 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3, Randomized, Three-Cycle, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate Induction of Secretory Conversion of Endometrium and Withdrawal Bleeding for Secondary Amenorrhea NCT02019589 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• Study Comparing Estradiol Vaginal Inserts 4mcg To IMVEXXY ® (Estradiol Vaginal Inerts 4 mcg) In The Treatment Of Dyspareunia in Women With Vulvur and Vaginal Atrophy NCT05617820 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Oral Levonorgestrel Plus Meloxicam, IG-002 Delays Ovulation in Normal Menstruating Women by Seven Days NCT05695352 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.