Aliskiren and the Calcium Channel Blocker Amlodipine Combination as an Initial Treatment Strategy for Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: may applycriteria mayprotocol defineddefined inclusionother protocol
  Phrases that lowered it: participantscompareand safetyefficacy andamlodipine
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 336 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 49857 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11689 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Combination Aliskiren/Amlodipine in Patients With Hypertension Not Adequately Responding to Amlodipine Alone NCT00778921 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Combination Aliskiren/Amlodipine in Patients Not Adequately Responding to Aliskiren Alone NCT00777946 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Aliskiren Alone and in Combination With Amlodipine in Essential Hypertension NCT00739973 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of the Combination of Aliskiren (300 mg) and Amlodipine (10 mg) Compared to Amlodipine (10 mg) Monotherapy in Patients With Moderate to Severe Hypertension NCT00841672 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Aliskiren/Amlodipine/Hydrochlorothiazide in Patients With Moderate-severe Hypertension NCT00765674 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.