A Preliminary Study to Evaluate Cysteamine Therapy in Human Subjects With Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (39 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determineheartsubjects withdetermine whetherages
  Phrases that lowered it: participateevaluatestudy toellisonzollinger
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 10 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 35 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cysteamine Bitartrate Delayed-Release for the Treatment of NAFLD in Children NCT01529268 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Cenicriviroc for the Treatment of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) in Adult Participants With Liver Fibrosis NCT02217475 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Colesevelam Versus Placebo in the Treatment of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis NCT01066364 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Solithromycin in the Treatment of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Without Cirrhosis NCT02510599 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Phase ll Study of IMM-124E for Patients With Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis NCT02316717 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.