The Stabilization of Atherosclerotic Plaque by Initiation of Darapladib Therapy Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: coronarysubjectstrokesubjectscardiovascular
  Phrases that lowered it: kidneyasthmafunctionallergicresponse
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 855 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 500 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Stabilization Of pLaques usIng Darapladib-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 52 Trial NCT01000727 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of RBD4059 in Participants With Stable Coronary Artery Disease NCT06717074 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Lipoprotein-associated Phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) Progenitor Cells and Coronary Atherosclerosis in Humans NCT01067339 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Tolerability and Efficacy of Anacetrapib in Patients With Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) or CHD Risk-Equivalent Disease (MK-0859-019) NCT00685776 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Study of Dalcetrapib in Patients With Stable Coronary Heart Disease, With Coronary Heart Disease Risk Equivalents or at Elevated Risk for Cardiovascular Disease NCT01516541 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.