Memantine and Validation of a New Alzheimer's Disease Scale

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerdementiaevidencescalememantine
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelhypersensitivitydrugallergypatients with
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 743 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 232 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Prediction of Cognitive Properties of Memantine for Neurodegenerative Diseases NCT02288000 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• Local Study of Akatinol Memantine in VaD in Russia NCT03986424 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Xanamem™ in Subjects With Mild Dementia Due to AD (XanADu) NCT02727699 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Investigation of Memantine in the Treatment of Memory, Concentration or Attention Problems NCT01261741 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Ladostigil in Mild to Moderate Probable Alzheimer's Disease NCT01354691 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.