A Study to Evaluate Ocrelizumab in Combination With Methotrexate Compared With Infliximab Plus Methotrexate in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Currently Responding Inadequately to Etanercept or Adalimumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radoublearthritisblindmethotrexate
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsgrouptherapyphase iicombination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Ocrelizumab Compared With Placebo in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate Therapy NCT00673920 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics/Pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) of Ocrelizumab in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00779220 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
• A Study With Tocilizumab [RoActemra/Actemra] Monotherapy or in Combination With Methotrexate in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (PICTURE) NCT01063062 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Investigating Clinical Efficacy of Ofatumumab in Adult Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Patients Who Had an Inadequate Response to TNF-α Antagonist Therapy NCT00603525 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Tocilizumab in Combination With DMARD Therapy in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis. NCT00773461 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.