Zinc for the Treatment of Herpes Simplex Labialis (HSL)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-12-31, after 2008-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagetransplantmyelomalymphomabone
Phrases that lowered it: topicaldrugtrialdayarea -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6453 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 730 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- zinc, zinc gluconate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety, Tolerability and Therapeutic Efficacy of Topical ZEP-3 Ointment (1.0%) for the Treatment of Cold Sores NCT02483182 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare Sitavig (Acyclovir) Buccal Tablet With a Placebo in the Treatment of Herpes Labialis in Participants Whose Immune System Works Normally NCT05098938 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- A Multicenter Study of NB-001 in the Treatment of Recurrent Herpes Labialis NCT01321359 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Immune Response and General Immune Health in Subjects Infected With Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 (HSV-1) NCT03661541 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Trial on Efficacy and Safety of Pritelivir Ointment for Treatment of Labial Herpes NCT02871492 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.