Dose Ranging Study to Evaluate Immunogenicity and Safety of Adjuvanted or Non-adjuvanted Cell Culture-derived H5N1 Influenza Vaccine in Young Adults (18-40 Years Old)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellacutepriortherapydisease
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzahealthyvaccinationimmunogenicity
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Immunogenicity of Two Doses of H5N1 Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT01776541 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity of Two Doses of Adjuvanted Monovalent Influenza Vaccine Administered to Healthy Adult and Elderly Subjects NCT00841763 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Immunogenicity, and Lot-to-Lot Consistency of H5N1 Subunit Influenza Virus Vaccine in Healthy Adult Subjects ≥18 Years of Age NCT02839330 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of Two Doses of Monovalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine That is Adjuvanted With MF59C.1 (MF59) and Uses a Surface Antigen From a Potential Pandemic Virus Strain Candidate (H5N1) in Adult and Elderly Subjects Using Four Different Vaccination Schedules NCT00848029 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Immunogenicity, Safety and Tolerability of Two Doses of Adjuvanted and Non-adjuvanted Swine Origin A/H1N1 Monovalent Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Subjects 18 or More Years of Age NCT00970177 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.