A Long-Term Extension Study of AT2101 (Afegostat Tartrate) in Type 1 Gaucher Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termextensionterm safetythe longcompleted
  Phrases that lowered it: participantefficacy andmalesafety offemale
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Oral AT2101 (Afegostat Tartrate) in Treatment-naive Patients With Gaucher Disease NCT00446550 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study in Type 1 Gaucher Patients to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Pharmacodynamics of AT2101 NCT00875160 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Eliglustat Tartrate (Genz-112638) in Patients With Gaucher Disease Who Have Reached Therapeutic Goals With Enzyme Replacement Therapy (ENCORE) NCT00943111 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of Eliglustat Tartrate (Genz-112638) in Patients With Gaucher Disease (ENGAGE) NCT00891202 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacodynamics, and Efficacy of Migalastat in Pediatric Subjects (Aged >12 Years) With Fabry Disease NCT04049760 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.