Safety and Efficacy of Tapentadol Immediate Release (IR) and Oxycodone IR for Treatment of Acute Post-op Pain Following Elective Arthroscopic (Surgery Using a Thin Flexible Scope) Shoulder Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationinjurybrainkidney diseasetraumatic
  Phrases that lowered it: anesthesiamoderateoperativepatientshealthy
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 22973 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of Extended-release, Once Daily Tramadol for Post Operative Analgesia in Shoulder Arthroscopy NCT02247648 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing the Effectiveness and Safety of Extended Release (ER) Tramadol Hydrochloride (HCl)/Acetaminophen With Immediate Release (IR) Tramadol HCl/Acetaminophen in Participants With Moderate to Severe Postoperative Pain NCT01814878 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• MRX-7EAT Etodolac-Lidocaine Topical Patch in the Treatment of Tendonitis and Bursitis of the Shoulder NCT01161615 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• The Use of Cannabidiol (CBD) in Pain Reduction and Opioid Use After Shoulder Arthroscopy NCT04672252 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Safety & Efficacy Study of MRX-7EAT Patch in the Treatment of Pain of the Shoulder NCT01506154 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.