GA YAZ ACNE in China Phase III
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-05-31, after 2008-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: inclusion exclusionmgpostpresence ofthe presence
Phrases that lowered it: acneand safetyefficacy andhealthysafety of -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 36.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 234 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 14 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 234 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 104 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2335 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 299 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 36.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- drospirenone, ethinyl estradiol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Generic Tazarotene Cream, 0.1% in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT02160678 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Of Drospirenone and Ethinyl Estradiol vs Placebo in the Treatment of Truncal Acne NCT00722761 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Dose-ranging Study of DRM01 in Subjects With Acne Vulgaris NCT02431052 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Efficacy & Safety Comparison of Epiduo With Doxycycline Versus Vehicle With Isotretinoin in the Treatment of Severe Acne NCT01474590 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Study Comparing Test to Aczone 5% and Both to a Placebo Control in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT02929719 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.