Safety Study of AMG 811 in Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus With and Without Glomerulonephritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationmgsubjects withivsle
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsevaluate theto evaluatedays beforethe study
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 141 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of Abatacept to Treat Lupus Nephritis NCT01714817 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Study of Daxdilimab (HZN-7734) in Participants With Active Proliferative Lupus Nephritis (LN) NCT05540665 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple Rising Doses of Ixazomib in Lupus Nephritis (LN) NCT02176486 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• A Study of AMG 557 in Adults With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT00774943 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Obinutuzumab Compared With Placebo in Participants With Lupus Nephritis (LN) NCT02550652 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.