Lapatinib Plus Capecitabine Versus Trastuzumab Plus Capecitabine in ErbB2 (HER2) Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-03-22, after 2009-04-14 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: braincancermribreastmetastases
Phrases that lowered it: open labelevaluatepatientschildrenphase iii -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 179 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 13 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 165 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 179 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 11647 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3795 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, neurology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, lapatinib, trastuzumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Chemotherapy and Lapatinib or Trastuzumab in Treating Women With HER2/Neu-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00667251 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Lapatinib in Combination With Docetaxel in Patients With HER-2 Positive Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01044485 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Phase I/II Study of Lapatinib in Combination With Paclitaxel as 1L Chemotherapy for ErbB2-positive MBC NCT01138046 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Lapatinib + Vinorelbine in ErbB2 Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients NCT01161368 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- Lapatinib in Combination With Vinorelbine NCT01013740 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.