Clinical Phase III Trial Treosulfan-based Conditioning Versus Reduced-intensity Conditioning (RIC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellamldonormdsuln
  Phrases that lowered it: patientstrialwith severedayindex
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 48.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Bone Marrow Transplant Using a Reduced Intensity Regimen That is Given in Two Steps NCT01350258 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Alemtuzumab Use (MabCampath®) in Hematopoietic Transplant of Unrelated Donor With Reduced Intensity Conditioning NCT00781781 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• Allogeneic HCT With HLA-matched Donors : a Phase II Randomized Study Comparing 2 Nonmyeloablative Conditionings NCT00603954 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Reduced Intensity Regimen vs Myeloablative Regimen for Myeloid Leukemia or Myelodysplastic Syndrome (BMT CTN 0901) NCT01339910 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Treosulfan, Fludarabine Phosphate, and Total-Body Irradiation Before Donor Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With High-Risk Acute Myeloid Leukemia, Myelodysplastic Syndrome, Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia NCT00860574 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.