Safety and Efficacy Study of Clindamycin Phosphate 1.2% and Tretinoin 0.025% Gel to Treat Rosacea

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,012 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the pastto determinetherapypast monthsbowel
  Phrases that lowered it: acnerosaceatopicaldermatitisgel
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2559 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• CGB-400 Topical Gel for the Treatment of Inflammatory Lesions of Rosacea NCT04886739 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study of CD07805/47 Topical Gel in Subjects With Facial Erythema Associated With Rosacea NCT01355471 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study of CD07805/47 Topical Gel in Subjects With Facial Erythema Associated With Rosacea NCT01355458 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of DRM02 in Subjects With Rosacea NCT01993446 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Therapeutic Equivalence Study of Two Metronidazole 1%Topical Gel Treatments for Patients With Rosacea NCT01513863 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.