Study Evaluating HTC-867 in Healthy Young and Elderly Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (289 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2009-04-30, after 2009-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ascendingtolerabilitythe safetyand pharmacodynamicschronic
Phrases that lowered it: healthydrugscreeningsingle doseevaluate the -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 129 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 315 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 315 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 129 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study Evaluating The Safety and Tolerability of HTC-867 in Healthy Japanese Subjects NCT01268124 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Study of ATH-1020 NCT05169671 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Two Part Study to Assess Safety, PK, PD, and Food Effect of Oral HTL0016878 NCT03244228 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate HT-4253 in Healthy Subjects NCT06537817 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Safety and Tolerability as Well as Absorption and Excretion of TC-5214 in Medically Stable Elderly Subjects NCT01239771 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.