Temsirolimus and Irinotecan for Treatment Resistant Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer and KRAS Mutations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorsurgerymajortemsirolimuscancer
  Phrases that lowered it: 30mldaysperiodsingle
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4264 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Irinotecan, Cetuximab and Everolimus to Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01387880 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of the Combination of Panitumumab, Irinotecan and Everolimus in the Treatment of Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT01139138 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib in Combination With Irinotecan in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients With KRAS Mutated Tumors NCT01715441 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Pemetrexed and Gemcitabine for Treatment Resistant Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer and KRAS Mutations NCT01109615 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• Irinotecan and Panitumumab as 3rd Line Treatment for mCRC Without KRAS Mutations NCT00792363 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.