A Study of the Effects of Single Dose Corticosteroids on Response to Allergens

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-05-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patient haspatient isstableof screeningleast months
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate themildto evaluateclinical trialasthma
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 289 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Demonstration of Equivalence and Early Onset of a Novel Anti-allergic Nasal Spray Compared to Marketed Nasal Spray NCT03755557 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study on the Effects of a Single Dose of Prednisone on Biomarkers of Allergen Responses in Asthmatics (MK-0000-175) NCT01193049 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• OC000459 Dose Finding Study in Hay Fever Sufferers. NCT00697281 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Innate Neutrophilic Nasal Inflammation in a Pollen Exposure Chamber NCT03496103 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study to Find Out How Long it Takes Azelastine Hydrochloride 0.15% Nasal Spray to Relieve Symptoms in Patients Suffering From Allergic Rhinitis NCT04264637 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.