Timed Release Tablet Prednisone in Polymyalgia Rheumatica
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,012 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-03-31, after 2009-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsmalleffectsilcancer
Phrases that lowered it: radiseasesdoseseffectinvestigate -
Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 39410 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8944 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- prednisolone, prednisone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Delayed Release Prednisone in PMR NCT02702778 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
- A Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Lodotra® Compared to Prednisone IR in Subjects Suffering From PMR NCT01821040 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- Tocilizumab Effect iN pOlymyalgia Rheumatica NCT01713842 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of tocilizuMAb Versus Placebo in Polymyalgia rHeumatica With glucocORticoid dEpendence SEMAPHORE NCT02908217 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Abatacept in earLy Onset Polymyalgia Rheumatica: Study ALORS NCT03632187 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.