Melatonin for Migraine Prevention
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2009-10-31, after 2009-02-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: attackchronictreatmentmigraineacute
Phrases that lowered it: healthycrossoverpreventionbetween 18drugs -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 498 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 114 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- melatonin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study With Amitriptylin to Evaluate the Efficacy of Melatonin in Treatment of Migraine NCT01357031 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of NXN-188 for the Treatment of Migraine Headache Without Aura NCT00959751 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- An Acute Migraine Factorial Study NCT06245902 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Melatonin for Adolescent Migraine Prevention Study NCT03150797 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
- Low-Dose Naltrexone and Acetaminophen Combination and Its Components in the Acute Treatment of Migraine NCT03061734 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.