A Phase 3 Study Comparing 2 Doses Of CP-690,550 And The Active Comparator, Humira (Adalimumab) Vs. Placebo For Treatment Of Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: countpatients000the patientactive
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetysafety ofefficacy andlabelthe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 342 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 556 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 156 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3 Study Comparing 2 Doses of CP-690,550 vs. Placebo for Treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00814307 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing 2 Doses Of CP-690,550 Vs. Placebo For The Treatment Of Rheumatoid Arthritis In Patients On Other Background Arthritis Medications NCT00856544 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A 2-Year Phase 3 Study Of CP-690,550 In Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis On Background Methotrexate NCT00847613 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Comparing The Effectiveness And Safety Of 2 Doses Of An Experimental Drug, CP-690,550, To Methotrexate (MTX) In Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have Not Previously Received MTX NCT01039688 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Study of CP-690,550 Versus Placebo In Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients On Background Methotrexate With Inadequate Response To Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) Inhibitors NCT00960440 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.