Acolbifene in Preventing Cancer in Premenopausal Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-12-31, after 2009-02-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerconcurrentcarcinomapatientpatients must
Phrases that lowered it: breast canceruse ofstudyallergicdrug -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 30 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Letrozole in Preventing Breast Cancer in Healthy Postmenopausal Women at High Risk for Breast Cancer NCT01077453 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Prevention Strategy for Pre-Menopausal Women at High Risk for Development of Breast Cancer NCT01276704 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
- Oral Tamoxifen vs. TamGel vs. Control in Women With Atypical Hyperplasia, Lobular Carcinoma In Situ, or Increased Breast Cancer Risk NCT04570956 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Breast Cancer Risk Biomarkers in Premenopausal Women NCT01252277 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Bexarotene in Preventing Breast Cancer in Patients at High Risk for Breast Cancer NCT03323658 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.