Efficacy and Safety of Alogliptin Plus Metformin Compared to Glipizide Plus Metformin in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: coronarydiabeticor equalequal toto screening
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andevaluate thepressurefemales
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 49.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 64 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9169 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 2 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Alogliptin Plus Metformin in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01023581 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Alogliptin and Metformin Fixed-Dose Combination in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01890122 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Alogliptin Compared to Glipizide in Elderly Diabetics NCT00707993 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Comparative Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety When Metformin Hydrochloride 500 mg Once Daily is Added on to SYR-322 25 mg in Type 2 Diabetic Patients With Inadequate Glycemic Control Despite Treatment With SYR-322 25 mg in Addition to Diet and Exercise Therapy NCT02068443 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Sitagliptin Addition During Metformin Up-titration (MK-0431-848) NCT02791490 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.