The Effect of Insulin Detemir in Combination With Liraglutide and Metformin Compared to Liraglutide and Metformin in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stableallowedcanceror equalequal to
  Phrases that lowered it: metformintype diabeteswith typeinsulinopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 49.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 301 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 84 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7338 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Insulin Degludec/Liraglutide and Insulin Degludec in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01392573 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• The Effect of Liraglutide Compared to Sitagliptin, Both in Combination With Metformin on Glycaemic Control in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT00700817 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Insulin Degludec/Liraglutide (IDegLira) Versus Basal-bolus Therapy in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02420262 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Comparison of the Efficacy and Safety of Two Intensification Strategies in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Inadequately Controlled on Basal Insulin and Metformin NCT01388361 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• The Efficacy and Safety of Liraglutide Adjunct to Insulin Treatment in Type 1 Diabetes NCT02098395 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.