Study of Vorinostat Plus Melphalan and Prednisone (Zmp) in Advanced, Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 30% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-05-31, after 2009-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientrelapsedrefractorycellperformance
Phrases that lowered it: malefemaleperiodallergicpatients -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 108 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 54 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- vorinostat
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Vorinostat and Lenalidomide After Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT00729118 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Study of Vorinostat (MK0683), an Histone Deacetylase (HDAC) Inhibitor in Combination With Bortezomib in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma (MK-0683-095) NCT00773838 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Bortezomib and Vorinostat in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma Who Have Undergone Autologous Stem Cell Transplant NCT00839956 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Vorinostat, Bortezomib and Dexamethasone in Multiple Myeloma (MUKFour) NCT01720875 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Vorinostat, Bortezomib, and Doxorubicin Hydrochloride Liposome in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT00744354 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.