Observational Study of Cognitive Outcomes for Subjects Who Have Had Prior PET Amyloid Imaging With Florbetapir F 18 (18F-AV-45)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectslong termbrainavsubject
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsvolunteershealthyimpairmentmild
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of 18F-AV-45 in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and Healthy Volunteers NCT01565343 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Trial of 18F-AV-45 Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Imaging in Healthy Volunteers, Patients With Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT00702143 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Autopsy Follow-up of Subjects Previously Imaged With Florbetapir F 18 (18F-AV-45) PET in Trial 18F-AV-45-A07 NCT01447719 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study of Two Doses of 18F-AV-45 in Alzheimer's Disease and Healthy Volunteers NCT01565330 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of the Correlation Between Florbetapir F18 PET Imaging and Amyloid Pathology in the Brain NCT00857415 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.