Study to Evaluate the Analgesic Efficacy of 28 Days' Oral Administration of AZD2066 Compared With Placebo in Patients With Painful Diabetic Neuropathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: paindiabeticplacebodiagnosis ofpainful
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theefficacyto evaluatestudyinvestigate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 564 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 309 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Analgesic Efficacy of AZD2423 Compared With Placebo After 28 Days Treatment in Patients With Painful Diabetic Polyneuropathy NCT01201317 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study of Effectiveness and Safety of JNJ-42160443 in Patients With Diabetic Painful Neuropathy NCT00993018 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• A Trial in Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy With GRT3983Y NCT01056315 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of AZD5213 in Combination With Pregabalin in Subjects With PDN and Good Pain Reporting Ability NCT01928381 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• AZD2066 Neuropathic Pain - Mechanical Hypersensitivity NCT00939094 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.