Trial Comparing the Effects of Aripiprazole With Those of Standard of Care on Non-HDL Cholesterol in Patients With Schizophrenia or Bipolar I Disorder Who Have Metabolic Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsyndromesclerosisdiagnosiscurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect oftypedrugscomponents of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• One-Year Trial of Oral Ziprasidone in Bipolar Patients With Metabolic Syndrome NCT01113541 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• A Multicenter Investigative Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Long-term Administration of Aripiprazole in Combination With Mood Stabilizer for the Treatment of Patients With Bipolar Disorder Experiencing a Manic or Mixed Episode NCT00606229 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel Group-comparison Trial of Aripiprazole in the Treatment of Patients With Bipolar Disorder Experiencing a Manic or Mixed Episode NCT00606281 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of an Intramuscular Formulation of Aripiprazole (OPC-14597) as Maintenance Treatment in Bipolar I Patients NCT01567527 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Aripiprazole for Bipolar Disorder and Alcohol Use Disorder NCT02918370 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.