Trial of Pemetrexed and Bevacizumab for Recurrent Ovarian Primary Peritoneal Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-12-31, after 2008-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreatercancerbrain
Phrases that lowered it: blood pressurebevacizumabopenpatientsmmhg -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 44 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 62 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8378 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2774 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, pemetrexed
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Neoadjuvant Therapy for Ovarian Cancer NCT01146795 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- BIBF 1120 in Bevacizumab Resistant, Persistent, or Recurrent Epithelial Ovarian Cancer NCT01669798 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Pre-operative Chemotherapy Plus Bevacizumab With Early Salvage Therapy Based on PET Assessment of Response in Patients With Locally Advanced But Resectable Gastric and GEJ Adenocarcinoma NCT00737438 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Postoperative Adjuvant Chemotherapy With Bevacizumab and Maintenance Bevacizumab After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Ovarian Cancer NCT02022917 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Weekly Ixabepilone With or Without Biweekly Bevacizumab NCT03093155 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.