Diclofenac Patch for the Treatment of Acute Pain Due to Mild to Moderate Wrist Sprain, Strain or Contusion
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2009-09-30, after 2009-02-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 60% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: injuryacutepainhours ofwound
Phrases that lowered it: mild toto moderatetopicalpatchonce daily -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 9402 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 17 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 60% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9402 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2086 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- diclofenac
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Diclofenac Patch for Treatment of Acute Pain Due to Mild to Moderate Ankle Sprain NCT00869180 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Diclofenac Patch for Treatment of Mild to Moderate Ankle Sprain NCT00640705 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Diclofenac Patch for Treatment of Acute Pain Due to Mild to Moderate Soft Tissue Injuries (TAPED) NCT00931866 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Diclofenac Diethylamine 2.32% Gel Applied Twice or Three Times Daily in Patients With Acute Ankle Sprain NCT00955513 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Diclofenac Sodium Topical Gel 1% Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Acute Blunt Trauma Injuries NCT02290821 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.