A Long-term Follow-up Study of Botulinum Toxin Type A in Patients With Overactive Bladder as a Result of Spinal Injury or Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: injurysclerosismultiplelong termpatient has
  Phrases that lowered it: patients withperiodresultparticipatedweeks in
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 526 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Long Term Follow-up Study of Safety and Efficacy of Botulinum Toxin Type A for the Treatment of Patients With Idiopathic Overactive Bladder With Urinary Incontinence NCT00915525 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Long-Term Extension Study of OnabotulinumtoxinA (BOTOX®) for Urinary Incontinence Due to Neurogenic Detrusor Overactivity NCT01852058 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of OnabotulinumtoxinA for the Treatment of Urinary Incontinence Due to Neurogenic Detrusor Overactivity (NDO) in Non-Catheterizing Patients With Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT01600716 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Botox Versus Oxybutynin as First Line Treatment for the Poorly Compliant Pediatric Neurogenic Bladder NCT01716624 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• OnabotulinumtoxinA for the Treatment of Urinary Incontinence Due to Overactive Bladder in Pediatric Patients (12 to 17) NCT02097121 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.