Efficacy and Tolerability of Tauroursodeoxycholic Acid in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosisalsonsetregimenlateral
  Phrases that lowered it: subjects whoclinicalpatientstrialcentre
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AMX0035 in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT03127514 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• RT001 in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT04762589 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Effects of PTC857 Treatment in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis ALS NCT05349721 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of TRO19622 as add-on Therapy to Riluzole Versus Placebo in Treatment of Patients Suffering From ALS NCT00868166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study for SAR443820 in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT05237284 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.