Efficacy Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness of 3 Concentrations of SAR 1118 in Allergic Conjunctivitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-05-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: in situactivetransplantantimarrow
  Phrases that lowered it: allergicvisitallergenabuseperiod
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of an Ophthalmic Solution in Patients With Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT01743027 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of AL-4943A Ophthalmic Solution in Patients With Allergic Conjunctivitis Using the Conjunctival Allergen Challenge (CAC) Model NCT01479374 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Safety and Efficacy of Ketotifen 4.0% Patch as Compared to Placebo Patch, Olopatadine 0.2% Ophthalmic Solution, and Artificial Tears in the Conjunctival Allergen Challenge (CAC) Model of Acute Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT00836485 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of PRT-2761 for the Treatment of Acute and Chronic Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT03320434 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of AL-53817 and AL-78843 Ophthalmic Solutions for Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT02079649 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.