A Study Comparing the Effectiveness and Safety of Teriflunomide and Interferon Beta-1a in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensionlong termmultiple sclerosisrelapsingto assess
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantconsiderations relevantall considerationscontain all
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 401 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6536 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Efficacy Study of Teriflunomide in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT00751881 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Teriflunomide in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis and Treated With Interferon-beta NCT01252355 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Phase III Study With Teriflunomide Versus Placebo in Patients With First Clinical Symptom of Multiple Sclerosis NCT00622700 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Teriflunomide in Pediatric Patients With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT02201108 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Study of Evobrutinib in Participants With RMS (evolutionRMS 1) NCT04338022 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.