Gemcitabine, Capecitabine, and Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2009-10-31, after 2008-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerdiseasestagechemotherapyerlotinib
Phrases that lowered it: trialpatientsclinicalpatientdisorders -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8075 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2876 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, erlotinib, gemcitabine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Gemcitabine With or Without Capecitabine and/or Radiation Therapy or Gemcitabine With or Without Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT00634725 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine and Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent Pancreatic Cancer NCT00810719 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Gemcitabine-erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine-erlotinib-capecitabine in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01303029 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Erlotinib and Gemcitabine With or Without Panitumumab in Treating Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT00550836 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Study of Erlotinib, Gemcitabine and Oxaliplatin Combination Chemotherapy to Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01505413 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.