A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Odanacatib (MK-0822) in Postmenopausal Women Previously Treated With a Bisphosphonate (MK-0822-042)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bonehas historytreatedof screeningseizure
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsthe trialdensitythe studymedication
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 286 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 522 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Odanacatib (MK-0822) in Men With Osteoporosis (MK-0822-053) NCT01120600 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy of Odanacatib (MK-0822) on Bone Mineral Density (BMD) and Bone Micro-architecture and Overall Safety in Postmenopausal Women (MK-0822-031) NCT00729183 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Odanacatib in Postmenopausal Women Previously Treated With Oral Bisphosphonate (MK-0822-076) NCT01803607 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test the Effect of MK0217A on Vitamin D Inadequacy in Postmenopausal Women With Osteoporosis (0217A-262) NCT00692913 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Odanacatib (0822-059) NCT01068262 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.