Sitagliptin (MK-0431) vs. Placebo in Patients With Inadequate Glycemic Control on Metformin With Pioglitazone (MK-0431-128)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 46.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: coronaryheartarteryof screeningdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: type diabetesmetforminwith typeefficacymk
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13763 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 78 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 55797 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Sitagliptin and MK0431A in Comparison to a Commonly Used Medication in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes (0431-068)(COMPLETED) NCT00541450 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• MK0431 and Pioglitazone Co-Administration Factorial Study in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (0431-102 AM2) NCT00722371 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Sitagliptin 100 mg in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Have Inadequate Glycemic Control (MK-0431-229) NCT01076075 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study in China Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Adding Sitagliptin to Stable Therapy With Sulfonylurea With or Without Metformin in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) (MK-0431-253) NCT01590771 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Safety and Efficacy of Sitagliptin Compared to Glimepiride in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes on a Stable Dose of Metformin (0431-803)(COMPLETED) NCT00701090 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.