Geographic Atrophy Treatment Evaluation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: other protocolprotocol definedmay applycriteria maydefined inclusion
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalvehicle20study eyeefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multicenter, Proof-Of-Concept Study Of Intravitreal AL-78898A In Patients With Geographic Atrophy (GA) Associated With Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) NCT01603043 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Multiple Dose Study of AVD-104 for Geographic Atrophy (GA) Secondary to Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) NCT05839041 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal Injections of ANX007 in Patients With Geographic Atrophy NCT04656561 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• ONL1204 Ophthalmic Solution in Patients With Geographic Atrophy Associated With Age-related Macular Degeneration NCT04744662 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Assessment Treatment Trials of Emixustat Hydrochloride NCT01802866 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.