Interferon Alpha Lozenges in the Prevention of Winter Colds and Flu
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-03-31, after 2009-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebovirustherapyableprevent
Phrases that lowered it: respiratorycopdinfluenzacontainingrenal
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 501 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 131 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- interferon
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Interferon Alpha Lozenges Plus Oseltamivir for Influenza Treatment NCT01146535 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Influenza Vaccine Challenge Study in Healthy Subjects NCT01226758 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity and Safety of Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (Flumist) Administered by Nasal and Sublingual Route NCT01488188 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of MVA-NP+M1 in the Influenza H3N2 Human Challenge Model NCT03883113 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Nitazoxanide in the Treatment of Acute Uncomplicated Influenza NCT01610245 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.